System Dynamics Modeling For The Protection of Sustainable Food Agricultural Land In Southwest Aceh Regency

Ikhsan Ermi¹, Sugianto², Elysa Wulandari³

1 Student of of Environmental Management Program, Syiah Kuala University (USK), Banda Aceh

2 Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Syiah Kuala University (USK), Banda Aceh

3 Department of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering, Syiah Kuala University (USK), Banda Aceh

E-mail: ikhsanermi@gmail.com

Abstract

Southwest Aceh is a rice-producing area in the Aceh Province that has experienced changes in paddy field areas due to population growth. Population growth has led to land conversion, with some land used for residential purposes and others for economic activities in the industrial and service sectors, resulting in a high percentage of land conversion. This study aims to design a system dynamics model to observe the sustainability of paddy fields and rice availability in Southwest Aceh. The data used in this study are secondary data from relevant institutions, including population growth, paddy field area, grain production, consumption rates, and land conversion coefficients as constants. The research method used is system dynamics modeling with a cause-and-effect perspective built into a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), then constructed into a Stock Flow Diagram (SFD) using Powersim Studio10 software. The results of the study illustrate that changes in agricultural land use are triggered by population growth, leading to a reduction in harvested area and rice production. The simulation results found several scenarios for the sustainability of agricultural land in Southwest Aceh, namely: (1) a scenario of increasing paddy field area through extensification activities of 2000 ha can maintain Southwest Aceh's paddy field area at 6500 ha by 2045; (2) a scenario of improving production facilities using certified superior seeds can increase the harvest yield to 90,000 tons by 2045; (3) a scenario of providing incentives from the government to farming communities through agricultural machinery assistance and accelerated certification of agricultural land can reduce the land conversion rate by 0.16% annually. By managing feedback from existing system issues, a series of actions can be taken to find solutions. With the interactive Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and model simulations through the Powersim application, strategic policies can be formulated to address changes in agricultural land use in Southwest Aceh Regency.